Time: Saturday, 2 p.m.

TV: ESPN2

KNOXVILLE—The Vols (9-8, 1-4 SEC) are making a dangerous habit of playing just well enough to lose. In key stretches late in losses to Alabama, Kentucky, and Ole Miss, Tennessee simply couldn’t make the plays it takes to win. In the first meeting with Alabama, the Vols couldn’t take care of the ball down the stretch and the Tide used those turnovers to score the easy points needed to pick up the victory. Thursday against Ole Miss, the Vols went 0-4 from the floor and 0-4 from the free throw line in the final three minutes of play. In a loss at Rupp last week, Tennessee’s defense softened late and the Wildcats converted their last eight field-goal attempts.

The Vols have been the opposite of clutch thus far, and will have to change that to beat an Alabama (12-6, 4-1 SEC) team that is starting to live up to its preseason billing. Alabama has won three straight in the series and four consecutive games overall; including wins over Kentucky and Texas A&M.

The Vols are 3-0 when Stokes makes at least 6 free throws.
Photo by Reed Carringer

Offense: It’s becoming painfully clear that Jarnell Stokes’ play is crucial to Tennessee’s success. The Vols are winless on the road and Stokes is averaging a paltry 5.0 point per game on the road this season. In Tennessee’s lone SEC win, the sophomore forward scored 18 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, while in Tennessee’s four SEC losses, he averaged just 7.75 points per game. If the Vols are going to string together a series of wins, Stokes has to play better. For UT to beat Alabama, he’ll have to manage more than eight points.

Jordan McRae has been brilliant this year in SEC play. He comes into the contest ranked second in the league in scoring (21.6 ppg) and fifth in field-goal percentage (49.3%). He’s shown no signs of slowing down and UT need’s him to continue his scoring explosion to have a chance to beat Alabama and climb back toward .500 in conference action.

Defense: The Vols will have to slow Alabama’s guard-oriented attack. Trevor Releford (16.0 ppg) and Trevor Lacey (12.2 ppg) each shoot over 40% from beyond the arc. In Tennessee’s loss in Tuscaloosa earlier this month, the talented duo combined for 30 points. Cuonzo’s squad has struggled defending guards who can penetrate, and will have to contain Alabama’s guards off the dribble to avoid giving up open looks beyond the arc. Tennessee should have a decided advantage on the boards in the matchup (Alabama is being outrebounded by opponents this year) and shouldn’t struggle keeping the Tide off the offensive glass.

Prediction: The Vols will execute in critical moments and win a close one at home. Alabama is likely NCAA Tournament bound (#48 RPI) and Tennessee will get the win it desperately needs to have a chance to climb back into contention for an NCAA bid.