KNOXVILLE— The No. 25 Wildcats (17-7, 8-3) come to town Saturday for a 1 p.m. (TV: CBS) battle with the Vols. Kentucky had an awful week which saw them lose to Florida and lose star center Nerlens Noel to a season-ending ACL injury. The Wildcats, currently 42nd in the RPI, were no lock to make the tournament before Noel’s injury, and will struggle to earn a bid down the stretch. Meanwhile, no one in Knoxville has been talking about a tournament appearance of any kind, but after two road wins, the Vols have put themselves in a position to win some games down the stretch and play themselves back into the field of 68. Tennessee stands at 78th in the RPI and a win over Kentucky should bump them up ten spots or so, effectively putting them in “bubble” territory.

Golden’s play is key for the Vols.
Photo by Reed Carringer

Offense: If we’ve learned anything this year, it’s that the Vols rise and fall with Trae Golden. He is averaging 11.8 points per game in Tennessee’s wins, yet just 8.4 in Vol losses. Moreover, he’s scored more than 11 points six times in UT victories, but has failed to eclipse the 11 point mark in losses. When he scores in double-figures, the Vols are 9-3. Fortunately for Tennessee, Golden has scored in double-figures in each game since he returned from a hamstring injury. If he plays like he’s been playing this week, the Vols should knock off the Wildcats.

In the paint, Jarnell Stokes should continue his streak of double-doubles, especially with the absence of Noel. His minutes were severely limited in Rupp earlier in the year due to foul trouble. Kentucky doesn’t have anyone who can match up with him down low, so look for him to come out extra aggressive.

Defense: The obvious path to victory for Kentucky is to get hot from beyond the arc, where they shoot 36% for the year. If one stat points to Tennessee’s struggles, it’s that opponents have outscored the Vols from 3-point range. Tennessee stepped up their 3-point defense against Vanderbilt, and held the Commodores to
3-14 shooting from beyond the arc. It will take a similar effort against Kentucky for the Vols to emerge victorious.

Kyle Wiltjer had 17 points the last time these teams met, and Tennessee will have to find a way to keep him in check. A shooter who’s also 6-10, he’s a tough matchup for anyone, and the Vols will likely rotate defenders on him to see what works.

Prediction: Tennessee played the Wildcats tough in Rupp earlier in the year, and that was before Jarnell Stokes got on track. The Vols traditionally play well at home in big games, and even if Kentucky was at full strength, it wouldn’t affect my pick. Look for the Vols to win a close one and claw their way back into the NCAA Tournament picture.