KNOXVILLE— The Vols look to win their fourth straight game tonight when they host LSU (7 p.m. TV: ESPNU). Tennessee stands at 69th in the RPI rankings, and has played its way back into the NCAA Tournament picture. Statsheet.com has the Vols as one of the first eight teams out of the tournament, and a win over LSU is a must if the UT wants to have a continued presence in tournament talks. Tennessee has won its last four contests with the Tigers, but will be in for a challenge. LSU is 15-8 (6-6) with three road wins this season. They’re athletic, like to run, and have the size to cause trouble for the Vols in the paint.

The Vols are 10-3 when Golden scores 10.
Photo by Reed Carringer

Offense: We’re starting to sound like a broken record, but the truth remains when Trae Golden plays well, Tennessee is a very good team. Since returning from a hamstring injury, Golden is averaging 17.3 ppg and shooting 50% from the field…and the Vols are 3-0. Tennessee is 10-3 when Golden scores in double-figures, and 7-0 when he scores 12 or more. LSU doesn’t have a guard with the size to matchup 1-on-1 with Golden, so look for him to play well this evening.

In the paint, Jarnell Stokes is in for a test. LSU forward Johnny O’Bryant III is 6-9, 260 pounds, and should have the physicality and athleticism to matchup well with Stokes. The Tigers also feature a 7-3 center, Andrew Del Piero, whose length alone will cause problems for Stokes near the rim. Though Jarnell saw his streak of double-doubles end against Kentucky (missing the mark by one point and one rebound), he played well and set the tone for the game early with his aggressiveness on both sides of the floor. The Vols will need a similar effort from him tonight.

Defense: LSU isn’t an easy team to defend. They feature five players who average scoring in, or near, double-figures. The Vols have been playing a small four guard lineup which isn’t particularly suited to defending LSU’s size in the paint. If Stokes matches up with O’Bryant (13 ppg, and 8.7 rpg), a Vol guard will be forced to defend 7-3 center Andrew Del Piero. Conversely, if Stokes defends Del Piero, which is likely, a Tennessee guard will be paired with with O’Bryant. Though Del Piero plays just 13 minutes per game, his presence is sure to cause problems, and Tennessee may be forced to go back to a three guard lineup when he’s on the floor.

On the perimeter, the Vols will have their hands full with 5-10 guard Andre Stringer. He averages 10.7 points per game and shoots 40% from beyond the arc. While LSU is taller inside than Tennessee, the Vols have a height advantage at the guard and forward positions. Over 30% of LSU’s shot attempts come from 3-point range, and UT will have to use its length on the perimeter to fight through screens and contest the Tigers’ jump shots.

Prediction: If Tennessee comes out flat, LSU has more than enough talent to pull off the upset. Yet if the Vols show anywhere near the intensity they’ve displayed the last three games, they’ll earn their fourth consecutive victory. Tennessee wins by eight.