KNOXVILLE— The Vols are set to host No. 6 Florida in what is undoubtably the biggest game of the year for Tennessee. After losing their first six road games of the season, the Vols have won their last three road contests and five straight games overall. In the latest RPI rankings, the Vols are up to 56th, and UT is being projected as an NCAA Tournament team by some analysts. If the Vols can beat Florida, their standing for an NCAA bid will be on much more solid footing.

Billy Donovan’s Gators are 22-4 (12-2) and if the season ended today, would likely earn a No. 1 seed; but they won’t be at full strength. Forward Will Yeguete, Florida’s best interior defender, will miss the game as he recovers from knee surgery. Freshman guard Michael Frazier II will also be held out of action due to a concussion he suffered last week. Frazier averages 6.4 points per outing, and is Florida’s best outside shooter at 48.9% from beyond the arc. The Gators are the only team in the nation ranked in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and will certainly pose a tough test for the streaking Vols.

Golden is the unquestioned leader of the team.
Photo by Reed Carringer

Offense: It’s no secret Trae Golden is the cog that makes the entire Vol team work, and he’s coming off two performances which earned him SEC Player of the Week honors. Last week, he recorded 20 points in a win over LSU and went for a career-high 32 points in Tennessee’s four overtime win at Texas A&M. He’s averaging 20.8 points per contest since returning from a hamstring injury. Golden scored 29 points on 8-15 shooting in Tennessee’s two match-ups with Florida last season—both Vol wins.

In the paint, Stokes is in for a battle with 6-9, 250 pound forward Patric Young, who’s one of the few players in the country that can match Jarnell’s size and physicality. Stokes saw the floor for just 11 minutes against the Gators last year, so there’s not much familiarity between the two big men. Though Tennessee’s sophomore forward struggled for the first half of the year, he recorded eight double-doubles in his last 10 outings and has been one of the most dominate players in the country. Even with the gifted Young in the paint, Stokes should continue his productive play as long as he stays out of foul trouble.

Florida is an excellent defensive team that is holding opponents to 30.1% shooting from 3-point range this season. McBee, McRae, and the other Vol shooters will find good looks at the bucket hard to come by. Offensive discipline, movement, and shot selection will have to be near a season-best if the Vols are to knock off the Gators.

Defense: Speedy Florida guard Kenny Boynton is difficult matchup for anyone and recorded 29 points on 8-22 shooting last year in two games against the Vols. His ability to penetrate opens up the floor, and Tennessee’s interior defenders will have to be ready to help in the event Boynton beats his man.

Forward Erik Murphy, whose 6-10 size and smooth shooting stroke makes him one of the toughest players in the nation to guard, scored 25 points on 10-16 shooting against Tennessee last year. Josh Richardson will likely draw the assignment on Murphy early, and that could be the key matchup in the game.

Overall, Florida moves the ball well and consistently gets good looks at the basket. They shoot 49.2% for the season, and Tennessee will have to play one of their best defensive games of the year in order to pickup the upset.

Prediction: The Gators are favored by nine points, but the Vols typically play their best ball against Florida. Tennessee swept a Gator team which went on to the Elite Eight last year, and the Vols always play with confidence against Florida no matter their respective rankings. Though they’re one of the best defensive teams in the nation, they’ll have to stop Golden to beat UT in Thompson-Boling Arena, and I don’t think they have the guards to do it. Vols win a close one, Cuonzo moves to 3-0 against Donovan, and Tennessee moves closer to an NCAA tournament bid.