Picks Panel: 10 week four winners.
It’s time to pick our slate of week four games. After a rough first week, our panel went 28-2 last week, including unanimous upset picks of Ole Miss over Texas and UCLA over Nebraska. We also unanimously predicted Auburn would win a close one against Mississippi State. Hopefully, this week’s picks are as good or better! Right now, I’m tied with Andrew Robertson at 16-4 on the year. Thomas Duggins is one game back at 15-5.
Tennessee at Florida (-16)
Andrew: Last week was bad for Tennessee. REALLY bad. Don’t put too much stock in that game when judging the Vols moving forward, however. Oregon was possibly the worst conceivable matchup for Tennessee, and it showed on the field last Saturday. Florida is a radically different offensive team from the Ducks, but Tennessee has made a habit of making UF quarterbacks look like Heisman Trophy candidates. (Driskel last year and Brantley the 2 years prior to that) I don’t think Florida will score nearly as many points as the last few years, but they won’t have to score many to win this year. Their defense is THAT good. If Tennessee replaces Worley, which I think they will, whoever they trot out that first series will be a first-time starter. That’s not exactly the ideal team or venue to make your first career start. Winner: Florida
Thomas: Tennessee could be breaking in a new quarterback or bringing Justin Worley into Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Either of those options is less than desirable. On top of those factors, Tennessee has had the worst mojo/luck against Florida since 2004 and this year does not seem to be the year that that trend breaks. One positive for Vol fans, Florida probably will not put up 37 points in this year’s meeting. Winner: Florida
Reed: The Vols face another brutal matchup this week. Florida has the best defense in the nation and the Vol offense is sputtering. If Tennessee can win the turnover battle and hit a few plays downfield, the banged up Vol defense should keep them in the game. For that to happen, Butch Jones’ squad will have to be much more physical at the line of scrimmage than they’ve been so far this season. I don’t think Florida covers the spread, but with questions at quarterback and receiver, this won’t be the year the Vols pick up their first win in The Swamp since 2003. Winner: Florida
Auburn at LSU (-17)
Andrew: Was there an offseason coordinator hire better than LSU’s hiring of Cam Cameron? He has transformed Zach Mettenberger into a bona fide All-SEC caliber quarterback. A powerful and balanced LSU offense to go along with an always stingy Tiger defense makes for bad news for the rest of the SEC. Auburn is 3-0, matching their win total from last season. Nick Marshall has improved in each of his first 3 games at QB, but he’s going to have to greatly improve this week for Auburn to have a chance. It takes a special team to go into Death Valley on a Saturday night against a very good LSU team and come out with a victory. Auburn isn’t that good. Winner: LSU
Thomas: Auburn is already reaping the benefits of hiring Gus Malzahn as head coach en route to a 3-0 start. Unfortunately that will come to an end against LSU, where Zach Mettenberger and a host of elite-level playmakers are looking to continue looking like SEC and National Title contenders. LSU has finally figured out this year that scoring points on offense helps a lot when competing for championships. Winner: LSU
Reed: Gus Malzahn has his much-improved Auburn team off to a 3-0 start and his squad looks bowl-bound, but LSU is my sleeper to win the BCS Championship. Their offense is rolling under new OC Cam Cameron and their young defense has been impressive thus far (their offense ranks 6th in the SEC and their defense 3rd). Both Auburn and LSU are headed in the right direction, but LSU is further down the path. Winner: LSU
Michigan State at Notre Dame (-5)
Andrew: Michigan St. has started off an unimpressive 3-0 with fairly close wins over Western Michigan and South Florida. Notre Dame struggled against a game Purdue team last week before pulling away late for the win. I don’t think neither of these teams are very good, but Michigan St. has a really good defense, and wacky things seem to happen when the Spartans travel down to South Bend. Winner: Michigan State
Thomas: Michigan State has a stout defense and an abysmal offense, Notre Dame has some good playmakers on both sides of the ball. Ultimately, the Irish will reap the benefits of having a veteran quarterback like Tommy Rees to lead them in tough contests like this one. Winner: Notre Dame
Reed: Neither one of these teams has been particularly impressive thus far. This game will come down to the effectiveness of Tommy Rees against Michigan State’s defense. Rees is throwing for 323 yards per game this year and the Irish offense should be effective enough to pick up the win. Winner: Notre Dame
Arkansas at Rutgers (-2.5)
Andrew: Arkansas is 3-0, which most everyone thought they would be. With facing such sparsely talented teams to date, no one knows what to make of this Razorback team quite yet. This week’s trip up to Piscataway will be a better barometer to see how good this team is. Rutgers lost a tough one to Fresno on the first Thursday of the season, and have rebounded for 2 wins since. Get to know the name Alex Collins for Arkansas. He may have the biggest impact of any true Freshman in the entire country this year, and I think he shows out in Jersey. Winner: Arkansas
Thomas: Arkansas finishes undefeated against one of the SEC’s two weakest nonconference schedules. They have a strong a running attack; or at least have looked like it while playing a who’s who of the worst teams in college football. The SEC will not be as kind to the piggies from Fayetteville. Winner: Arkansas
Reed: This is the toughest game for me to pick. On one hand, Arkansas’ physical ground game will give an abysmal Rutgers defense fits, on the other, Rutgers has enough weapons on offense to expose a weak Razorback defense. In games like these it’s tough to pick against the SEC, but I’m going with the home team. Winner: Rutgers
Arizona State at Stanford (-5.5)
Andrew: Put an asterisk by Arizona St.’s win over Wisconsin last week due to the botched ending from the officials, but a win with an asterisk is still a win. Last week’s win was big for the Sun Devils, but a win this week would be huge. Stanford had to travel all the way across country last week for an early kick against Army. Not an easy task, and the Cardinal may look a little sluggish this week from all that travel. Nevertheless, I think Stanford wears down Arizona St. and takes control of the game in the 4th Quarter with their, dare I say, SEC-esque style of play. Winner: Stanford
Thomas: ASU needed a lucky bounce to do away with Wisconsin. Wisconsin probably should not have been ranked in the first place, neither should ASU. I’ll take the Cardinal with their stable of running backs, strong defense and Kevin Hogan. Winner: Stanford
Reed: How is Stanford only favored by 5.5 points in this game? Arizona State got lucky last week when the Wisconsin staff and game officials pulled off a Dooley-esque finish which gave ASU the win. That won’t happen against Stanford. Winner: Stanford
Kansas State at Texas (-5.5)
Andrew: Can we rename this game the “Apathy Bowl”? What looked like a solid game in the preseason has turned into an afterthought after KSU’s loss to North Dakota St. and Texas’ defensive implosion in losses to BYU and Ole Miss. There’s no debating Texas is the more talented team, but what is the team’s collective mindset at this point? I think the Longhorns will muster just enough to beat the Wildcats in what might be an entertaining game in a morbid kind of way. Winner: Texas
Thomas: The Longhorns open up Big 12 play with a win. Not that that will save Mack Brown come season’s end. Kansas State lost to an FCS school, that combined with the game being played in Austin is enough for me to take the other UT. Winner: Texas
Reed: This looked like a marquee matchup when the season started, but now looks like a game between two floundering teams. When two struggling programs face off, I always take the home team. Winner: Texas
Utah State at USC (-6.5)
Andrew: If you don’t know who Chuckie Keeton is, I suggest you look him up. Utah St.’s QB is a phenomenal football player, and will be in the NFL sooner or later. If USC fans aren’t nervous about this game, they should be. Cody Kessler looked good at QB for the Trojans last week, and they actually threw the ball to Marquise Lee for the first time this year. This game is going to be close, but USC’s superior defense will make enough plays for the Trojans to escape this week with a win. Winner: USC
Thomas: Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton is an awesome football player to watch and the Aggies play enough defense to slow down/ stop an ugly Trojan offense. My head tells me do not pick against USC at home, but my heart wants to see the Lane Kiffin era continue to go down in flames. Winner: Utah State
Reed: Chuckie Keeton is one of the best QBs in the nation (and will face the Vols to open the 2014 season if he doesn’t enter the NFL draft after this year) and the Utah State offense will put pressure on USC‘s defense. Can the Trojan’s score enough to win this one? They can if QB Cody Kessler plays like he did last week. Lane Kiffin will postpone his imminent firing at least one more week with a win. Winner: USC
Missouri at Indiana (PK)
Andrew: This game intrigues me for some reason. Neither team is very good, but they’re not horrible, either. Kevin Wilson has the Hoosiers headed in the right direction, and a win over an SEC team would be a big accomplishment for the program. If this game was in Columbia, I would take the Tigers, but with the game being in Bloomington, I’ll take the Hoosiers. Winner: Indiana
Thomas: James Franklin has returned to his old form as quarterback, which is fantastic news for the Tigers. IU is a basketball school and really should give up this sport, like Kentucky in the SEC. Winner: Mizzou
Reed: Indiana is improving under Kevin Wilson and this should be a good game. James Franklin is healthy and that makes the Tigers a dangerous team, at least offensively. They should put up enough points to score a road win. Winner: Mizzou
Troy at Mississippi State (-14)
Andrew: I don’t have to remind Tennessee fans what Troy’s offense is capable of, and a lot of those players who torched the Vols last year are back this season. Mississippi St.’s defense is not anywhere near as bad as the Vols’ inept D from last year, however. The Bulldogs didn’t look terrible in defeat last week against Auburn, and I think they cruise against the Trojans this week. Winner: Mississippi State
Thomas: Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs are a “blah” team, but they score a victory at home in resounding fashion. You know, like Tennessee would have done to Troy last year had Derek Dooley and Sal Sunseri not happened. Winner: Mississippi State
Reed: Vol fans remember how close Troy came to upsetting an SEC team last year, but Mississippi State is better than last year’s Tennessee team. The Bulldogs should win this one, but never bet against a Dan Mullen team losing to an outmatched opponent. Winner: Mississippi State
Vanderbilt (-31) at UMASS
Andrew: Simply stated: UMASS is a bad football team. Vandy could probably sleepwalk through this game and still come out with a victory. Being that the game is being played in Foxboro at Gillette Stadium, that should provide enough motivation for the ‘Dores to come out and throttle the Minutemen…even if the stadium is 7/8’s empty. Winner: Vandy
Thomas: The Commodores have faced a lot of distractions with the loss of their second best receiver/ offensive player Chris Boyd. Normally, a road date coming out of week like they have had would spell bad news. Luckily, the Commodores only play bottom-feeders in the nonconference schedule. Another win on the way to bowl eligibility for the SEC’s other worst nonconference schedule. Winner: Vandy
Reed: If you’re 31-point underdogs at home to Vanderbilt, you probably shouldn’t have a football program. Winner: Vandy