Tennessee (4-4, 1-3 SEC) at No. 10 Missouri (7-1, 3-1 SEC)

Columbia, MO

7 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Offense: The Vols are facing a Missouri defense which gives up a ton of yards (395.6, 10th in the SEC) but not many points (22.8, 5th in the SEC). Unless you’ve been living under a rock this week, you know Tennessee’s offense is in the hands of talented true freshman QB Josh Dobbs; you may not know Missouri’s defense leads the SEC in sacks and in turnovers-forced. Expect the Tigers to vary the looks they show Tennessee’s young single-caller and bring several exotic blitzes. Dobbs will have to show the kind of poise and command of the offense we saw last week for the Vols to win this one.

Look for Tennessee to establish the run early in an effort to take pressure off Dobbs before opening up the playbook as the game progresses. Will the coaching staff turn Dobbs loose despite a lack of depth at QB? They’ll need to for UT to pick up the victory. He can extend plays with his legs and is more than capable of moving the chains running the read option.

Missouri’s defense gives up a league-worst 284.2 yards per game through the air, so the Vols will have chances to make plays. Marquez North, Pig Howard, Josh Smith, Jason Croom and Co. can’t have the costly drops they displayed last weekend. The opportunities will be there, the Vols just have to execute.

On the ground, the Vols are in for a stiff challenge. Missouri’s defense gives up a paltry 111 yards per game on the ground, good for third in the SEC. They held Mike Davis, the SEC’s leading-rusher, to 51 yards on 19 carries (2.7 per carry). For some context, Davis gained 137 yards on 21 carries (6.5 yards per carry) when the Vols downed the Gamecocks in Knoxville two weeks ago. If Neal and Lane can combine for close to 150 yards and take care of the football, the Vols will have a great shot at knocking off the Tigers. Dobbs’ mobility should help open up some lanes for the UT ground game.

Missouri’s defense is aggressive and thrives on creating turnovers. Their “bend but don’t break” approach works best when opponents are careless with the football. Winning the turnover battle will be paramount if the Vols are to pick up the upset. The Tigers’ aggressiveness can be exposed through screens, so don’t be surprised if Tennessee OC Mike Bajakian works several screen plays into the gameplan.

Defense: Missouri’s offense is about as dynamic as they come. They score over 41 point per game (2nd in the SEC) and beat opponents on the ground and through the air. That said, they haven’t been the same since James Franklin went down with an injury. He could be back next week but won’t play this weekend (barring a last minute surprise). Backup QB Maty Mauk looked impressive two weeks ago in a win over the Gators (18-36, 295 yards, one TD, one INT) but was largely ineffective in Missouri’s loss to the Gamecocks last week (10-25, 249 yards—96 coming on one slant pass to Washington—one TD, one INT).

Despite Mauk’s inconsistency, his receivers are a threat to break one for a long touchdown any time they touch the football. The only way the Vols win this one is if the secondary turns in a disciplined performance, takes solid angles, and doesn’t miss more than a handful of tackles.

Missouri has a ton of weapons, but Tennessee’s defensive front should be able to put pressure on Mauk and force him into some bad decisions. The Vol front-seven will be challenged by a Missouri ground game which averages 224.5 yards per contest. South Carolina held them under 160 yards rushing; a number the Vols would be very happy with tomorrow. Bottom line: Tennessee has to turn in one of its best tackling performances to win this one.

Prediction: I haven’t picked the Vols to upset anyone this year (I thought the SC game would be close, but didn’t pick the Vols to win). Despite perception, Missouri and Tennessee have comparable talent. The Vols have more than enough talent at the line of scrimmage to disrupt Missouri’s game plan. If Dobbs shows the kind of poise he demonstrated last week in Tuscaloosa, he’ll lead the Vol passing attack to new heights. My money is on the Vols coming out fired up after a lackluster effort last week and winning a close one. Vols 27 Missouri 24