Picks Panel: Vols-Commodores plus five weekend winners
Last week Vegas went 4-2 for a yearly total of 62-20. For the year, I’m 61-21, Andrew is 57-25 as is Thomas. On to this week’s games.
Vanderbilt at Tennessee (-2.5)
Andrew: The Vols have to have this one. I think it’s fair to say that this is the biggest game of Butch Jones’ tenure to date. The team has no reason to not be fired up. It’s Senior Day, gray jerseys, having to win to get bowl eligible, and Vandy curb-stomped them last year. All those factors should provide plenty of motivation. Don’t discount the fact that UT had a BYE last week, either, while Vandy was squeaking out a win over Kentucky. A Vandy win would give the Commodores a 2 game winning streak over Tennessee, which hasn’t happened in about 90 years. The X-factor could be the weather. There’s a chance we could see some snow flurries Saturday night in Neyland. The weather could affect ball security, which I think is the biggest key to the game. Vandy is excellent at causing turnovers, and then capitalizing on them. If Tennessee takes care of the football, I think they win this game. Look for the O-Line to have their best game of the season against a Vandy defensive front that is soft up the middle. It wouldn’t surprise me if Dobbs has more rushing attempts than passing attempts, either. All things considered, I think things are shaping up well for Tennessee this Saturday. WINNER: Tennessee
Thomas: I really think this game has solid potential to be the game of the weekend in terms of competitiveness. Vandy is the team with the better record and has been more consistent than the Vols. Both teams have great talent in some areas and are almost completely deficient in others. The key to this game (as is with most games) is turnovers and the rushing game. I think Tennessee wins the rushing and total yardage categories and they might do so handily. The key though, will be turnovers. Josh Dobbs allows Tennessee to expand their playbook more than Justin Worley because of the true freshman’s god-given natural ability and his apparent composure, which is remarkable for a freshman starting in the SEC. The one completely fair knock on Dobbs though, is he has turned the ball over too much in the Vols last two games against Missouri and Auburn. Some of that was on Dobbs, some of that was suspect playcalling (having him roll out and throw against his body against Auburn was horrible), but the point is the Vols need to win the turnover battle Saturday night. Vanderbilt’s upsets over Georgia and Florida were keyed by turnovers and failed execution of the Bulldogs’ and Gators’ part. Vandy does run a bunch of looks on offense and has some playmakers. Jordan Matthews is All-American caliber at the Wide Receiver position and Jonathan Krause has been solid in the now-departed Chris Boyd’s place. Jerron Seymour is the type of running back that could give the Vols fits. All of this said… the Vols have significant physical advantages at both lines of scrimmage and they should (emphasis being should…that hasn’t been a certain thing this season) be able to dictate things on both sides of the ball. If Cam Sutton is not following Matthews around the whole game then that is a a problem as I don’t foresee Justin Coleman having the ability to keep track of him. On offense, the Vols should (again though, the Vols should have been able to run on every team minus Bama this year) be able to run down Vandy’s throats plus Dobbs provides a potential run-pass threat that Vandy has struggled against this year (See Bo Wallace, Manziel, Connor Shaw, and James Franklin). I am not comfortable at all picking this game but… with the game in Knoxville, under the lights and with the Vols desperate for bowl eligibility, I am taking the Vols although I expect them to give me a heart attack if they find a way to win. Winner: Tennessee
Reed: This is going to be a very good game. Vanderbilt comes into the contest high on confidence after beating Georgia and Florida in the same season for the first time in school history. They’re bowl eligible for the third straight year and expect to beat Tennessee. This is the biggest game of the year for the Vols. They simply cannot lose this game. Fortunately for Jones, this is a great matchup for the Vols. Vanderbilt struggles to defend uptempo, spread offenses and hasn’t been able to stop a mobile QB this year. Conversely, the Vol defense has been solid against pro-style offenses (with the notable, and understandable, exception of the Bama game). This is the best the Vols have matched up with an opponent since probably the WKU game. The Commodore offense struggled the move the ball against UK last week and hasn’t been clicking. The Wildcats dominated Vanderbilt up front for much of last week’s game and the Vols should do the same. Look for UT’s defensive line to have its most disruptive outing in months against a Vandy offensive line which has given up 31 sacks on the year. I fully expect Josh Dobbs to call his own number on the ground multiple times and think he’ll score his first career touchdowns. Vanderbilt lives off of winning the TO battle, and as long as Tennessee doesn’t beat itself, the Vols will win this one by more than one possession. Winner: Vols
Missouri (-3) at Mississippi
Andrew: At the beginning of the season, no one would have thought this game would have so much riding on it. Missouri is trying to win the East, while Ole Miss is trying to get in a big-time bowl game. The biggest story is James Franklin coming back from injury for the Tigers. Maty Mauk was solid in his absence, but Mizzou’s offense is on another level with Franklin at QB. Ole Miss has been excellent at home this year, and all of their young talent now has some seasoning, meaning they’re an improved football team from the start of the season. This game will be close. In my opinion, it’s a total toss-up between the two. Even though they’re on the road, I think Franklin’s return and a quick and aggressive defense will lead the way for the Tigers to eek one out on the road and take one step closer to Atlanta. WINNER: Missouri
Thomas: Ole Miss has become a trendy pick to upset and put an end to Missouri’s hopes of winning the SEC East. That’s what others are saying, I am saying that the Tigers roll into Oxford and take out the rebel black bears. Missouri brings more experience into the game as opposed to a young Rebels team who may have more talent. Another thing is Mizzou (against USCe, Tenn and Kentucky) has played a much tougher schedule over the last weeks than Ole Miss (Idaho, Arkansas and Troy). Put simply, the Tigers in recent weeks have had to play at a higher level in order to win than the Rebels and I expect that to pay dividends Saturday. Plus, if you’re matching a battle of coaching wits I will take Gary Pinkel over Hugh Freeze any day. Oh yeah, James Franklin is also back. Winner: M-i-z-z-o-u
Reed: I’m not as high on Missouri as our other panelists. I wouldn’t hesitate to pick against the Tigers if James Franklin was still sidelined, but even with their leader back, Missouri is in for a battle. Ole Miss has been very good at home (with a win over LSU and a close loss to TAMU) and I expect them to knock off the Tigers and give the Gamecocks the SEC East crown. Winner: Ole Miss
Baylor (-8) at Oklahoma State
Andrew: Similar to Knoxville on Saturday, the weather has the potential to get nasty in Stillwater, also. The Cowboys have been known to air it out at a frenetic pace in the past, but they will be the more conservative offense this week. Look for OK State to lean on the run to try and keep the ball away from that Baylor offense. Baylor can’t be excited about the weather forecast. Bryce Petty has been nothing short of phenomenal this season, but he is without his top 2 running backs and his top receiver this week. Having to go on the road in a hostile environment while being banged up, it all adds up to an upset special. However, injuries and inclement weather are still not enough to stop this Baylor offense. They keep rolling. WINNER: Baylor
Thomas: Baylor has not beaten a ranked team on the road since I was a toddler (or something like that). The Cowboys have quietly put together a good season, the lone exception being a disgusting loss at Morgantown against a bad West Virginia team. The Bears bring the most high-powered offense in America to Stillwater (where they haven’t won since before WWII). The Cowboys rank in the top 20 in the country in points for and points allowed. History tells us to take Mike Gundy’s team. I believe though, that Art Briles is the best offensive mind in the country, and now he has a defense that can somewhat keep up with his high-powered offense. If Baylor wins this game they will almost certainly jump Ohio State in the BCS standings, which I think is a cause any fan outside of the state of Ohio can get behind. Winner: Bears
Reed: The best predictor of the future is the past and Baylor hasn’t won in Stillwater since 1939. They’re just 2-15 against Oklahoma State since they joined the Big 12. Art Briles is 0-10 against ranked teams on the road. Baylor is going to have to exorcise a lot of demons to win this one and I don’t think they’ll be able to do it against the underrated Cowboys. Winner: Oklahoma State
Texas A&M at LSU (-4)
Andrew: On a weekend of good matchups, this game might provide the most entertainment. With the drama surrounding Jameis Winston, Manziel is one dynamite performance away from, perhaps, becoming the Heisman frontrunner once again. He probably would also need his team to win, and the problem with that is the Aggie defense is all kinds of terrible. Baton Rouge will be rocking, even with it being an afternoon game. If A&M had any semblance of defense, I would be inclined to pick them, but they don’t. I think the LSU offense will run wild, and the Tigers win in a shootout. I think both teams will score in the 40s. WINNER: LSU
Thomas: Perhaps the favorite for most entertaining game of the weekend. Both teams have offenses with playmakers at the quarterback and wide receiver positions. Both defenses have struggled (putting it mildly) to stop a stiff breeze this year. As highly as I think of John Chavis (dating back to his days at Tennessee), the fact is, he has a history of struggling to scheme against mobile quarterbacks (ex. any LSU qb in the Fulmer era, DJ Shockley, Tebow). Johnny Manziel is legitimately a once-in-a-generation level talent at the quarterback position. He simply does things on the field that can’t be taught and he has no fear of the moment. While this game was indeed more prestigious looking at the beginning of the season, this is still a primetime matchup on CBS at 330 and America will be watching. Expect JFF to keep building his Heisman resume and put on a show in what will likely be one of his last few games on the college level. Winner: Texas A&M
Reed: It will take another herculean effort from Manziel for Texas A&M to win this one and even that might not be enough. LSU may be the best team in the nation when playing at home and they have enough weapons to outscore Manziel and the Aggies. Winner: LSU
Arizona State (-3) at UCLA
Andrew: Another fun matchup. This game is the de facto PAC 12 South championship game. Both teams are having solid seasons, both coming into the game at 8-2. Everything about this game looks even. Both have solid offenses with dynamite playmakers: Hundley for UCLA and Grice for ASU. Also, both teams have fast and aggressive defenses with a couple of QB killers: Barr for UCLA and Sutton for ASU. With all things even, I’ll give a slight edge to the home team. I also think Jim Mora and Todd Graham are two of the more underrated college coaches currently. WINNER: UCLA
Thomas: UCLA is the more talented team, but the Sun Devils have been a very good team this year and are putting up a more than impressive 42.3 points per game. I am half-tempted to take Todd Graham’s team, but then I look at the fact that the Bruins are at home, have a stud quarterback in Brett Hundley and average a healthy 37 points per game themselves and I have come to the conclusion that UCLA will win this game, but expect plenty of scoring. Winner: UCLA
Reed: This panel unanimously picked UCLA to upset Nebraska and Arizona—both picks that proved correct. Lesson? Don’t bet against the Bruins when they’re underdogs. They’re home dawgs this week and it looks like they’ll again surprise Vegas and pick up another victory. Winner: UCLA
Kentucky at Georgia (-26)
Andrew: Kentucky actually showed some signs of life against Vandy last week. I expected them to basically mail it in for the rest of the year, but it doesn’t look like that is happening. While the Cats are feeling better about themselves, Georgia has to pick up the broken pieces of their collective heart. (that sounds like a bad Taylor Swift song) They’ll sleepwalk through the first half of this game, but eventually, talent will win out and the Dawgs will win comfortably. WINNER: Georgia
Thomas: It will be senior day for the Bulldogs, and while the results of this season are certainly disappointing for UGA fans, the one player you can’t really knock this year is Aaron Murray. The 5th year senior has been the best quarterback in the SEC minus Johnny Manziel. There’s also a rumor that the Bulldogs may break out black jerseys for this game. I expect the Bulldog offense to put on a show against Kentucky and for the defense to excel against a lackluster (that’s putting it nicely) Kentucky offense. The Bulldogs win by double-digits, and UGA fans better get one last look at Murray while they can, because odds are they won’t have another quarterback with as long and distinguished a career as him for a long time. Winner: UGA
Reed: Kentucky isn’t as bad as they’ve been in the past, but they’re still really bad. The Bulldogs have been inconsistent all year but they’re not losing this one. Winner: Georgia