There’s far too much sensationalism floating around the Vol basketball program. I addressed some of that over a month ago in a piece that is now the most read in this site’s history. If you haven’t done so, I suggest you check it out as a baseline for what follows.

Since I last wrote an in-depth look at the Vol basketball program, Tennessee has suffered multiple close (and bad) losses. A petition to “Bring Back Bruce” was born and, to date, has been signed by over 26,000 people. Bruce Pearl spoke at a fan event in Nashville in an orange and white shirt. Someone created a “Bring Back Bruce” video that, in one day, has been viewed nearly 11,000 times.

Clearly, it’s time to take another look at Vol hoops, Martin’s job security, and the growing fan movement to rehire Pearl.

The Vols are underachieving.

Any discussion of the program has to start with what’s happening on the court.

I’ll be the first to admit that I had high expectations for this Vol team; after all, I had them ranked 19th in Basketball Time in Tennessee‘s preseason poll. An NCAA Tournament appearance, a tournament win, and perhaps a Sweet Sixteen berth all seemed reasonable.

Those high expectations were built on the belief that Maymon would be close to the player he was before multiple knee surgeries. He’s been solid (10.5 points per game, 8.1 rebounds per game) but anyone who’s seen the Vols play can tell he’s not the same player he was pre-injury. Those expectations were also based on the idea that 5-star freshman Robert Hubbs would, at worst, be a consistent scorer off the bench. A shoulder injury that eventually required season-ending surgery derailed his season.

Yet, even without the Hubbs and Maymon we expected, these Vols STILL have the talent to make the tournament. They’ve proven that in wins over Ole Miss, No.11/12 Virginia, Xavier, and LSU. They’ve proven they have tournament talent in a close loss to No. 1 Florida, in a dominant win at Alabama, and in a competitive effort in Rupp.

This team as currently constructed should make the NCAA Tournament. That’s absolutely fair. And that’s an expectation Vol fans should have year-in and year-out. Sweet Sixteen goals are overblown for this season considering the status of Maymon and Hubbs.

Still. This team shouldn’t be on the bubble.

Unless they start playing with more urgency, there’s no way they’ll earn a tournament berth. Some projected brackets have them in and some have them out. They’re squarely on the bubble. But the ship hasn’t sailed on this team yet.

Bruce Pearl, not Cuonzo Martin, even said as much, “I think right now, today, Tennessee is in the tournament. They played such a good nonconference schedule, and the win against Virginia gets better and better every time Virginia plays, and that serves them well,” Pearl said Sunday (AFTER Tennessee’s loss to A&M) at SportsFest.

Until it becomes clear there’s simply no path for them to go dancing, there’s STILL  hope that this team CAN live up to the reasonable expectation that they make the tournament.

Make no mistake.

The Vols are underachieving. There’s absolutely no excuse for getting swept by Texas A&M.

But they haven’t underachieved reasonable season expectations.

Yet.

Cuonzo Martin is squarely on the hot seat.

If the Vols don’t make the tournament, I don’t see a way Martin returns to coach the Vols next season. Martin is the third most successful coach in my lifetime, yet, if fired, he will have the shortest tenure of Tennessee’s other fired coaches. Is that fair? Who knows. However, it is the reality.

Before the season, one high-level source in the athletic department told me Martin “better” make a tournament run this year.

The Vols were coming off six-straight tournament bids when Martin took over. If the Vols don’t make it this year, that would mean three consecutive years without an NCAA Tournament appearance. At a place like Tennessee, with all its resources, facilities, and tradition, that’s just not acceptable.

Tennessee is one of the winningest programs in conference history. Two of UT’s last four coaches (Green and Pearl) won over 70% of their games and made the tournament every year of their tenure. Since Thompson-Boling Arena opened in 1988, the Vols have averaged a top-10 finish in attendance nationally.

Consistently dancing in March should be a forgone conclusion for the Vols.

Fan support is waning.

The Vols averaged 16,635 fans in attendance last season—good for 8th nationally. Tennessee’s average home attendance is sitting at 15,156 this year —which would rank 15th nationally. The roughly 1,500 person drop in average attendance would be the largest since 2010-11 to 2011-12…Pearl’s last season to Martin’s first. You have to go back to the 1993-94 season to find an equally drastic decline in attendance from one season to the next.

If the numbers hold, two of the top three single-season downturns in attendance in the last 20 years will have come during Martin’s tenure.

Bruce Pearl wants the job if it comes open.

If you don’t think Pearl is interested in the Tennessee job, you’re kidding yourself. Pearl hasn’t denied a possible return. No one from his camp has denied interest, either. Think about it. He could crush all the “Bring Back Bruce” talk with a simple statement. He hasn’t done that. He even showed up in Nashville at SportsFest over the weekend in an orange and white shirt. That’s not exactly quelling the tide, is it?

Pearl loves Knoxville and loves UT. Tony Jones, his associate head coach who spent 10 years on his staff, still lives in the area and has made it known that he’s open to returning to Rocky Top.

The desire is there on Pearl’s end.

There are still people in power at UT who don’t want Pearl.

Many at UT have a systematic distrust of Pearl. He lied to them repeatedly about minor violations. He violated rules when he knew there was no margin for error. He orchestrated an attempted cover-up of his transgressions. People in power don’t like to be lied to. They also don’t like to hire people they fired for lying. Many bridges have to be repaired before many would even consider a possible Pearl return.

Fair or not, an even bigger hurdle for some people involves the NCAA. Gregg Doyel summed it up best, “A school has never fired a coach for breaking NCAA rules so badly that the NCAA gave the coach a show-cause ruling — any school wanting to hire him must ‘show cause’ before his penalty expires — and then rehired him as soon as it expired. That has never happened, and for good reason. It’s outrageous. Dangerous.”

Rehiring Pearl all but assures the NCAA, weakened though it may be, would set up camp in Knoxville. That means Pearl would have to operate a squeaky clean program. It also means all other Vol teams would have to be extra diligent about following the hefty NCAA rulebook. There would be little margin for error.

But the tide may be turning in Pearl’s favor. Boosters are restless and the athletic department could certainly use the money he would generate. Several people I’ve spoken with recently have said there’s a “10% chance” UT would make a serious run at Pearl if a change is made. That’s better than 0%, but the odds are still stacked against his potential return.

Pearl isn’t the only coach who can win at UT, but he is the most proven coach the Vols could hire.

Strip away all the off-the-court issues. On a scale of 1 to 10, Bruce Pearl is a 9. He’s an excellent coach. He led Tennessee to its first No. 1 ranking and first Elite Eight. He led Tennessee to six straight NCAA Tournament appearances and multiple Sweet Sixteens. Is there any other coach out there who has such a resume AND would take the Tennessee job? Heck no.

If the Vols fire Martin, they will be parting ways with a coach who (will have likely) averaged 20 wins a season and won close to 60% of his games (Pearl won at 65% clip his last 3 seasons). What coach (not named Pearl) in his right mind would take the Tennessee job if that happens? What coach would want to deal with the “Bring Back Bruce” crowd after every loss?

That puts a ton of perceived pressure on Tennessee athletic director Dave Hart to either back Martin and squash the Pearl rumors, rehire Pearl, or find the next big thing.

Which brings me to my next point.

Dave Hart doesn’t care about pressure from fans or boosters.

A million people could sign the Bruce Pearl petition and Dave Hart wouldn’t give it serious consideration. His job isn’t to appease fans and do the will of the masses; his job is to make sure the Vol basketball program is in good hands on and off the  court. The ONLY way Martin gets fired and Pearl rehired is if Hart thinks that’s the best way to ensure the long term health of Vol hoops.

Remember when UT fans were consumed with Gruden? It was “Gruden or bust” for most of the fall on Rocky Top. Tennessee fans everywhere tuned into Monday Night Football in hopes he would wear an orange tie or mention Tennessee. National media outlets even picked up on the “Gruden to Tennessee” theme. Are you seeing the parallels?

When Butch Jones was hired, fans were initially underwhelmed. But Jones proved that a coach the masses didn’t want (and never truly considered) could win over a fan base that was previously enamored with a big name.

IF Hart decides Martin isn’t the right guy and Pearl isn’t the right coach to replace him, the majority of Vol fans will embrace a winner who also embraces them. Hart knows this. Sensible Vol fans know this. A minority may cling to the “Bring Back Bruce” movement if a non-Pearl change is made, but Hart knows hiring (or keeping) the right coach is more important than hiring the popular coach.

Is Martin the right coach? Is Pearl the right coach? Vol fans justifiably have their opinions, but Dave Hart is the only one who gets to make that decision.